For several weeks, demonstrations gathering tens of thousands of Israelis call for elections. But they have not reached yet the extent of those against the judiciary reform before October 7. If according to the polls, most people want to return to the polls, some of them want it to happen as soon as possible while the rest awaits the end of the war before joining the demonstrators. Netanyahu has every interest in keeping the war going. He relies on the majority of the population, including even some of his opponents, that still supports him, hoping to eradicate the threats posed by Hamas on the cities and kibbutzim of the south of the country, and those of Hezbollah in the North. Moreover, thanks to it, he enjoys a renewed support of voters who had abandoned him, holding him responsible for the failures of October 7, even if had not yet assumed them. But, despite all the statements of the Israeli army, it is obvious that Hamas still has a military capacity and that the IDF has managed to release only three hostages, while others have been released following negotiations. The Hamas even succeeds in regaining control over areas previously “cleaned”by. The current debate in Israel is whether the offensive should continue on the city of Rafah where, according to military estimates, there are four battalions of Hamas, counting between 4 and 5,000 men, or whether to try and establish a ceasefire which is the only hope to free the hostages. This is what the families and more and more Israelis are asking for. It is first and foremost a moral requirement to release them. There is undoubtedly a military logic to want to eliminate what remains as a military force of Hamas and especially to destroy the tunnels that lead to Egypt and through which Hamas supplies itself with weapons. But this goal, if attainable, cannot be achieved without Egyptian and American support. According to Israeli army estimates, Hamas has, since October 7, lost nearly 15,000 of its operatives who are part of the 34,000 victims announced by the Palestinian Health Minister. From his point of view he achieved his goals and succeeded in putting the Palestinian issue at the center of international concerns and he is now recognized by the Palestinians as the spearhead of their national resistance. The only way for the Israelis to eliminate that threat is not by launching an operation on Rafah which would inevitably result in many other victims among the civilian refugee population and blacken even more their image in the world. It is by allowing, within the framework of an agreement, a political alternative to its power, composed of representatives of a renewed Palestinian Authority that would regain credit with the Gazan population if it succeeds, with international aid, rebuilding cities and restoring order and security. If, despite everything, the Israeli government decides to launch this operation, it risks ending the draft agreement under negotiation with the Saudis and undermining its relationship with the United States. Rafah or Riyad, this is the choice Israel is facing !
However, as demonstrated by the recent interception of the massive attack of drones and ballistic missiles from Iran by an international coalition alongside the IDF. Israel remains dependent on Western support and, in the first place, that of the United States. And so far, this support has always been bipartisan, coming from both Democrats and Republicans. This is the very pillar of Israel’s defence strategy. In recent years, however, Netanyahu has chosen to sacrifice this bipartisan support by taking a stand in favour of the most conservative streams within the Republican Party. He preferred Christian fundamentalists to American Jews, more 70% of whom remain loyal to the Democratic Party. Biden, who is probably the last Zionist American president, supported Israel since the beginning of that war, in spite of Netanyahu. That choice may cost him his reelection since the left wing of the Democratic Party—especially its young members, 50 % of whom claim , according to some polls, to be pro-Palestinian, threaten to make him pay for his support to Israel by deciding not to vote for him next November.
However it is not too late to come out of this crisis from above. The United States must demand an end to the fighting from Israel if a ceasefire is reached as part of an agreement to release the hostages and impose the plan we have been talking about for several weeks: the release of all the hostages, the Israeli withdrawal along the border, the transmission of the management of Gaza to Palestinians not attached to the Hamas, the reconstruction of the cities with financial support from the Emirati and Saudi Arabia and the establishment of military control by international forces to prevent a return of Hamas, with IDF maintaining a military presence on the borders. If this plan is implemented, it will inevitably lead to a crisis in Israel and to new elections. And if such a dynamic is really set in motion, with strong American and European involvement, we can hope for a return to a political process with the Palestinians.
