Which scenarios for the next day


More than three months after the war against Hamas started, following the atrocious murders and rapes it had committed on October 7th, IDF forces intensify fighting in the Gaza Strip, and the situation of populations becomes more drastic from day  to day. The number of soldiers killed since the Israeli army entered the Gaza Strip increases every day (175 today), as well as the number of Palestinian victims (more than 22000, according to the Palestinian Health Department). In the North, Hezbollah keeps sending rockets against civilian and military targets,  while not engaging in a generalized war, even after Saleh Al-Aouri, Hamas number 2,  has been eliminated in Beirut by an Israeli drone. Houthis, in Yemen, keep attacking cargo ships in the Red Sea, forcing the Western navies to intervene to restore the passage of ships in a strait that is vital for international trade.

Negotiations to release the 132 Israelis still held hostage to Hamas seem to have stopped, reducing the hope of recovering them all alive. The statements of Israeli ministers belonging to far-right parties evoking the possible displacement of Gazan populations to third countries arouse increasingly strong condemnations from the allied countries of Israel while the violence of settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank and the repression of the army are condemned by the UN.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Beni Gantz, all three participating in the restricted war cabinet, continue to assert that the war objectives remain the eradication of Hamas and the return of the hostages, but they still do not set political objectives to this war with a plan for the next day, a plan that the government would be hard pressed to define, given the composition of its coalition.

The Israeli population keeps supporting its army and mobilizes iself in order to help refugees who had to leave their locations close to South and North borders, and address the deficiencies of the State, but it remains divided on the way to deal with the situation in Gaza after the war. However, it is necessary to get prepared from now on and build the alliances needed to take charge. Still living under the trauma of October 7, and the daily announcements of the soldiers who fell at the front,  people in Israel are not really concerned about the situation of the people living in Gaza whose images are missing from Israeli television channels.

Israel cannot afford to support this war without the constant support of the United States. How long can they continue to do so if this government does not define its post-war objectives and put a stop to the behaviour of its extremists?

What are the possible scenarios for the next day?

We will debate this topic on Wednesday, January 17th, at 7.30 p.m., during the meeting we plan to organise with La Paix Maintenant, with :

  • Elie Barnavi, Professor emeritus in the history of modern western history at Tel Aviv University, former ambassador of Israel in France, director of the scientific committee of the Musée de l’Europe in Brussels. Author of various books on Israel, religions, and the conflict.
  • Jean-Pierre Filiu, researcher at CERI, teaches the history of the contemporary Middle East at Sciences Po (Paris). He is the author of many books on the Arab world and contemporary Islam, all translated in fifteen langages and more.


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